Liftoff

Hey Superheroes,

It’s been a week of historic firsts.

On Tuesday, the United States and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, formally ending the three-month conflict. In response: Brent crude dropped below US$95, the IAEA is ready to begin diluting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and the Strait of Hormuz is opening back up. Markets responded positively. Commodities rallied, and investors moved towards higher-risk assets following the announcement.

Central banks responded in lockstep — almost. The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday under new Chair Kevin Warsh, his first meeting in the role. The Bank of Japan, though, hiked 25 basis points to 1.00%, the highest Japanese policy rate since September 1995. 

Back home, BHP hit an all-time high of A$65.18 on Monday as the peace deal supported gains in copper, iron ore and gold. More on that shortly. But the bigger story of the week happened on the Nasdaq.

Liftoff: SpaceX’s Strong Week One

SpaceX had an eventful first week as a listed company. SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) started trading last Friday at US$160.95, up 19% from the US$135 IPO price. By Monday, the stock had jumped another 20% on its first full session. By Tuesday, it had hit an all-time high of US$225.64 — and Musk became the world’s first trillionaire.

📈 The numbers

By the close on Thursday, SpaceX ended its first full week of trading 37% above the IPO price, with a market cap of US$2.4 trillion. That makes it the sixth-largest company in the world, ahead of Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla. The IPO itself raised US$85.7 billion after underwriters exercised the overallotment — the largest stock market debut ever.

There was volatility along the way. Shares fell 3.6% on Thursday, capping a two-day 8.3% pullback that reminded investors mega-IPOs can move both ways. Still, shares remained above the IPO price despite volatility. 

🛒 The $60 billion acquisition

Then on Tuesday, four days after listing, SpaceX put its newly minted public-market currency to work. The company announced a US$60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the AI coding startup behind Cursor. It’s the largest acquisition of a venture-backed startup on record.

The deal represents a significant strategic expansion in the AI software development market. Cursor pioneered “vibe coding” — workflows where AI tools generate software with minimal human input — and crossed US$4 billion in annualised revenue by early June. For SpaceX’s internal AI division (formed when xAI was absorbed earlier this year), it’s a chance to compete with Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex.

⚠️ The bear case

Not everyone is convinced. CFRA initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a US$115 12-month price target — a 38% drop from Friday’s close. The firm cited “extremely ambitious growth strategy, elevated valuation expectations and significant capital intensity.” Q1 capex was US$10.1 billion (up from US$4.1 billion a year earlier), with most going to AI.

Musk, predictably, was bullish. He posted on X that SpaceX “might be able to reach approximately” US$1 trillion in revenue by 2030 — up from US$18.7 billion last year. With the IPO done, the Cursor deal in motion and OpenAI and Anthropic queueing up behind, the SpaceX story is only just getting started.

Aussie Stalwarts Strike Gold

While SpaceX was stealing global headlines, two ASX stalwarts quietly notched record highs of their own. One digs things out of the ground. The other moves money around. Together, they capture how this peace dividend is flowing through to the local market.

⛏️ BHP rides the copper wave

BHP (ASX:BHP) hit a fresh all-time high of A$65.18 on Monday, up 3.6% on the day. The materials sector led gains on the ASX, finishing up 3.8%, with Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) also gaining 2.7%.

The driver is straightforward: copper and iron ore both rallied on the Iran peace deal, with copper extending its 2026 run on the back of a multi-year supply deficit. BHP shares are now up 62% over the past 12 months. Importantly, copper now contributes more than half of BHP’s group EBITDA — a structural shift management has been working toward since the 2023 OZ Minerals acquisition.

BHP currently trades at about 14.7x forward earnings with a fully franked dividend yield above 3%. The valuation is higher than many diversified miners, reflecting investor expectations around copper demand and the company’s asset base.

🏦 Macquarie hits another peak

On Wednesday, Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) reached an all-time high of A$250.54, up 23% year-to-date and 18% over the past 12 months. It is one of the highest-returning ASX 200 bank stocks year-to-date, putting daylight between itself and the big four.

Macquarie posted FY26 NPAT of A$4.85 billion in May, up 30% year-on-year, with second-half profit (A$3.19 billion) nearly double the first half. JPMorgan recently lifted its price target to A$265 and kept its Overweight rating, citing strong commodities and global markets activity. Macquarie’s diversified business — asset management, commodities trading, infrastructure, retail banking — gives it exposure to almost every theme driving markets in 2026.

Two record highs in three days, in two stocks that between them touch almost every dollar moving through the Australian economy. This highlights how global macro shifts are filtering directly into key segments of the Australian market.

🔦 Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

ALLBIRDS BECOMES SMARTBIRD: Two months after pivoting from sustainable footwear to AI infrastructure, the company has officially rebranded from NewBird AI to Smartbird (NASDAQ:BIRD) and appointed Nadia Carlsten — formerly of AWS quantum and DCAI — as CEO. Shares jumped 39% on Wednesday. From wool sneakers to GPU leasing in 60 days. Quite the pivot.

MODERNA EYES GERMAN PRODUCTION: Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told German daily Handelsblatt that the company is interested in taking over manufacturing plants BioNTech is closing. BioNTech is winding down sites at Idar-Oberstein, Marburg and Tübingen by end of 2027, affecting 1,860 jobs. Moderna sees an opportunity to expand European production via a government-partnered acquisition rather than build new.

PROJECT SUNRISE FINALLY HAS A DATE: Qantas (ASX:QAN) confirmed Sydney-to-London non-stop flights will launch in October 2027, with tickets on sale from February 2027. The 22-hour service was originally planned for 2025 and has been delayed multiple times due to Airbus A350-1000ULR production issues. Sydney-New York will follow.

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